Let's start with yesterday. Yes it was hot and humid with a high of 93, but we under-performed. In order for this area to really get into some serious heat, things have to come together just right and they missed the mark yesterday, most notably the wind. To get pushed into the upper 90s, we need a southwest to west wind. Yesterday, we had a southeast to south wind and didn't pick up that westerly component until mid-afternoon. We missed our window by then. For you Seinfeld fans: it reminds me of Elaine complaining to Jerry about Puddy's improvised "move,"specifically with the knuckle: "a big-budget motion picture that goes NOWHERE!"
So today, it'll be hot again but the humidity will be falling away later in the day. We'll follow up with a great day tomorrow but then as a frontal system returns for mid to late week, we'll see our humidity climbing up again with showers and the potential for some ill-tempered storms Wednesday and Thursday. We'll then dry out the skies and the air as we close the week and head into the weekend.
Today
It's a warm and muggy start to the day. Temperatures are mainly in the 70s across the area with dewpoints running not far behind. A few weakening showers are moving along pretty quickly south of Albany, heading east. They'll be clear of the mid-Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires before the morning commute is done.
From there, we turn our attention to a cold front moving into western New York. It will continue to press east through this morning into the afternoon and as it approaches, it'll touch off a few showers and perhaps a storm or 2, mainly from the Tri Cities south and east. All in all, not much fanfare with it. Behind the front, our wind will shift to the west which will help to lower our dewpoint temperatures a bit, to the low and middle 60s. Still on the muggy side but not as much as we've seen of late.
Not to bury the lede, but before all that, it'll still be a warm to hot and humid day. Highs will range from the middle 80s to the low 90s and with dewpoints sitting at or near 70, heat index values from the Hudson Valley east will top out in the middle 90s.
This will all lead to a much more comfortable overnight. Wind will be light out of the northwest, helping to drop our humidity a bit more with lows overnight back to the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Skies will end up mainly clear as well.
Tomorrow into Wednesday
Tomorrow will be a gorgeous day. We'll have a light breeze, a few scattered clouds, more comfortable humidity levels and highs in the low to middle 80s. As they say though, all good things must come to an end.
Deeper into the night, a warm front will be approaching. This will have us in an unsettled couple of days. Here's how it breaks down, with forecast questions remaining:
Warmer and more humid air continues to push in through Wednesday morning ahead of that warm front. Some energy aloft will be spreading in, bringing few showers and thunderstorms as we get into the afternoon. The question here is how much sun we'll see through the morning. Clouds will be coming in with that initial push of warmer air, and in those cases, sometimes they break up and sometimes they don't. More sun will translate to more robust storms.
The other question is when the actual warm front moves through. If it holds off until later in the day, the severe threat will be less. We'll still have showers getting into the evening, and some of those will be heavy as the humidity continues to rise. Highs Wednesday will be a bit cooler by comparison, in the mid 70s to the middle 80s.
Thursday and Beyond
The better day for more widespread and nastier storms looks to be Thursday. Ingredients will be in place for storms to fire up in the afternoon, as a cold front and some upper-level energy cuts into the warm and humid air mass. We'll likely have some sunshine through the morning which will increase the instability by pushing our temperatures back to the mid and upper 80s. I'll keep you posted on the particulars as we get a bit closer.
In the wake of all that, we'll finish the week up nicely with more sunshine, less humidity and mild-to-warm temperatures, in the upper 70s to the middle 80s for both Friday and Saturday.
Have a great day!
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July 20, 2020 at 06:18PM
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Jason Gough's forecast: Muggy start to the week - Times Union
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