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Jason Gough's forecast: Beautiful start to August - Times Union

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A day you'd pay for is upon us, but it will be free of charge. The first day of August will be gorgeous. Things go downhill for the second half of the weekend with some severe weather opportunities tomorrow. After a break on Monday, looks like some tropical moisture will be delivered to us ahead of what is a rather ragged Hurricane Isaias. That'll bring some heavy rain to a chunk of our area as we get into Tuesday.

Take today on its own merit, and you'd likely call it a top ten day. Take it in comparison to the weather we have coming, and it'll be even better.

It's a cool start in the Adirondacks, with temperatures in the low 50s. Elsewhere, we're seeing mid-50s to mid-60s. Everyone is under clear skies and for the most part, that'll be the case throughout the day.

Lots of sunshine, humidity under control with dewpoints at or about 60 degrees and a light breeze is what we'll all see today. High temperatures will climb to the upper 70s in the Adirondacks, 90ish down the mid-Hudson Valley, and everyone else in the 80s.

Clouds will be spreading in from the south as we get into tonight, which will mark the beginning of the end of our nice little mini-stretch of weather. Humidity will be climbing as we get into the overnight hours, with lows in the upper 50s to the upper 60s. Showers will break out in the Catskills overnight, perhaps spreading into the Hudson Valley early in the morning.

That's the appetizer for the main course to come later in the day. The setup is such that a warm front will be approaching from the southwest as energy in the atmosphere takes up position nearby, setting the stage for a potentially active day of weather tomorrow.

Tomorrow

That warm front will continue to push through our area as we get into the late morning and early afternoon. Showers will continue to develop along and ahead of the front during this time, too. It's after the frontal passage that things will start to get frisky around here, from mid-afternoon into the early evening.

As we'll be in the front's wake, it'll be way humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s. We'll break out into some sunshine, which will aid in rendering the atmosphere more unstable.

Questions remain as to how much we'll be able to tap into this instability with things not lining up "perfectly" to have a banner severe weather day. That said, we'll have some storms to deal with and the potential is there for a decent amount of them to break out. The threats would be strong wind, possibly some large hail and a tornado or 2. Again, this is not set in stone at this point but we need to be open to the possibility. I'll have a more clear picture of my forecast tomorrow morning.

Showers and storms will continue into the evening before tapering off as a cold front swings through late. It'll stay pretty muggy with lows in the 60s to 70 degrees.

Monday - a break

Monday is looking better than it has, forecast-wise. We'll be in the wake of a cold front, with dewpoints dropping back to the low 60s and a decent amount of sunshine. I can't rule out a stray shower or two but it'll otherwise be an overall good day with highs in the upper 70s to the middle 80s. The break won't last long, as all eyes turn to Isaias.

Tuesday and beyond

If you've ever played golf, you might have heard a smart-arse comment, "except for accuracy and distance, that was a great 6-iron!" Well, Isaias is kinda walking those same streets. Except for the track, timing and strength, we have this forecast nailed down!

It's not that bad really, but there are questions of course on how and when the storm will impact us. It is currently a hurricane, but not a terribly organized one. It will continue to have its challenges, which will in turn keep it from getting stronger. That is a good thing.

The official Hurricane Center track has Isaias heading toward the east coast of Florida but staying offshore through tomorrow, weakening and picking up speed through Monday. IT is forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm near the North and South Carolina border and again either on eastern Long Island or eastern New England (or both) late Tuesday into Wednesday. We'll deal with its effects before then.

For our purposes, we're not terribly concerned about the exact track of the storm. It does not look like we'll have any big wind to deal with but what we will have is rain, and it'll be here before the storm gets anywhere near us.

Rain will develop Monday night, as moisture is shipped north through the atmosphere. It'll be heavy at times through Tuesday before tapering off early Wednesday. The heaviest and most rain will fall to the south and east of Albany as things look now, but of course, I'll be updating and fine-tuning that over the next few days.

In the meantime, today will be a '10.' Hope you can get out and hook up with some vitamin D.

JasonsWeather

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Jason Gough's forecast: Beautiful start to August - Times Union
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