Reminder for Democrats: Politics won't stop after November - Roll Call

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At least seven GOP Senate seats would start off as vulnerable, but Democratic control of the White House, and normal midterm trends, might undermine that party’s takeover prospects in all or most of those states: Florida (Marco Rubio), Georgia (whoever wins the 2020 special), Iowa (Charles E. Grassley), North Carolina (Richard M. Burr), Ohio (Rob Portman), Pennsylvania (Patrick J. Toomey) and Wisconsin (Ron Johnson).

Retirements could improve Democratic chances, of course, depending on how strong the political current will be for one party or the other.

Most or all of those GOP Senate seats would be at risk if Donald Trump were still in the White House and Republican incumbents were on the ballot during a second Trump midterm election. But with Biden as the sitting president, the dynamics would be much more favorable for the GOP.

That isn’t to say that Democrats couldn’t win some (or even many) of those seats. But the challenge for them would be much greater with a Democrat in the White House, particularly if they control the presidency and both chambers of Congress.

Obviously, Democrats could benefit during the midterms from a changing electorate. The country is becoming less white and more diverse, and younger voters seem to have new priorities. At the same time, the GOP has shown little ability to broaden its coalition or appeal to voters of color.

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