Week 6 was a lot of fun, unless you played against Derrick Henry and Justin Jefferson. Their monster performances altered any matchups they were a part of this week, but they weren't the only stories. We saw Julio Jones return and revive the Falcons offense. Unfortunately, we saw very little from JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Evans.
So what does it all mean? Let's take a look in this week's Believe It or Not.
Derrick Henry is the most valuable player in non-PPR leagues.
Henry ran for 212 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 52 yards. He looked very much like the running back who outscored everyone but Christian McCaffrey in15 games in 2019. Despite another offseason of questions about whether Henry could repeat his performance, he looks like the best running back in football again. There is not one player you should trade Henry for straight up.
Verdict: Believe it.
Henry was off to a "slow start" in his first four games. That slow start had him averaging 102.5 total yards per game with four scores in four games. He broke out in Week 5 with his third 200-yard game since the start of the 2018 season. That matches the rest of the NFL combined. Henry's unique size/speed combo fits perfectly in the unique offensive situation in Tennessee.
You could maybe make an argument for Christian McCaffrey, but McCaffrey is still on IR and also has a bye in December. Henry's bye week is past and he's one of the few backs who has been able to stay healthy despite a monster workload. There's no one I'd rather have in a non-PPR league.
Justin Jefferson is a must-start wide receiver.
All Jefferson did was post the No. 1 wide receiver performance of Week 6 with nine catches on 11 targets for 166 yards and two touchdowns. It was his third game in his past four with more than 100 yards receiving and the second time this season he's scored at least 20 PPR Fantasy points. Pretty impressive considering the rookie has only played six games in his NFL career.
The FFT crew breaks down key Week 6 developments Monday on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Follow all of our podcasts and subscribe here.
Verdict: Believe it.
I do believe Jefferson is still behind Adam Thielen in the pecking order and there will certainly be weeks Minnesota doesn't throw enough for both of them to be good. But much like Will Fuller pre-2020, it's just very difficult to leave this type of upside on your bench. Ever.
Through Week 6 Jefferson is the No. 6 wide receiver in Fantasy Football and Thielen is one of five receivers ahead of him. This certainly isn't the way Mike Zimmer wants to play football, but his defense isn't giving him much of a choice right now. Until (unless) the Vikings defense starts playing better, you start Thielen and Jefferson every week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is droppable.
Smith-Schuster had his worst game of the season with two catches for 6 yards on four targets. It was his third consecutive game with five or fewer targets and his fourth straight with fewer than 50 yards. The goodwill from Smith-Schuster's two-touchdown game in Week 1 has fully worn off. He's behind Chase Claypool, and Diontae Johnson too, whenever he comes back. You can cut Smith-Schuster for Travis Fulgham or Boston Scott.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Three different receivers have led the Steelers in targets in their five games. While it's true Smith-Schuster hasn't been one of them, I don't believe that means he won't be. At some point defenses are going to have to start defending this Steelers team differently, and I'd expect Smith-Schuster will start performing better when that happens. How long should you wait? At the very least, I'd give it three more weeks.
As long as Julio Jones stays healthy, Matt Ryan is a Fantasy starter.
Matt Ryan has now played three full games with Jones this season. In those three games he's thrown for 1,094 yards and 10 touchdowns. In the other three games, Ryan delivered 749 yards and one touchdown. Correlation does not always equal causation, but in this case it just makes sense that he's a much better Fantasy option when he has a future Hall of Famer on the field. Start Ryan with confidence as long as Jones is healthy.
Verdict: Believe it.
I don't think it's just about Jones. Calvin Ridley has something to do with it too. When Ryan has Jones and Ridley on the field, it's virtually impossible for an NFL defense to stop them. Speaking of defense, Ryan's is so bad that he's averaging 40 pass attempts per game. That type of volume with this type of talent would spell Fantasy success for most NFL quarterbacks.
There isn't enough volume in Tampa Bay for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to both be stars.
In the three games Chris Godwin has played this season, Mike Evans has four catches four 14 yards. In Weeks 1 and 3, he scored, so it was fine. In Week 6 he just had a miserable day. It's been a fantastic start to the season for Tampa Bay as a football team, but for the passing attack it's worrisome. The Bucs averaged more than 300 yards passing per game in 2019, and so far they have one 300-yard game in their first six. When Evans and Godwin (and Gronkowski) are all healthy, there just isn't enough passing volume available for everyone to be a star..
Verdict: Don't believe it.
It's not just Godwin who hasn't been healthy. Mike Evans has been hobbled as well, which probably explains why Tom Brady is ignoring him outside of the red zone.
While it has been a choppy start for the passing game, the game scripts have also been really weird when Godwin has played. In this game they had the pick-six and Brady only threw 27 passes. In Week 1, it was their first week together. We need more data before we can parse who the best receiver is going to be in Tampa Bay, but for now you should continue starting Evans and Godwin each week.
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October 19, 2020 at 09:19PM
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Fantasy Football Believe It or Not: Justin Jefferson must-start? Derrick Henry No. 1? Drop JuJu? - CBS Sports
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