It’s a question at the front of many peoples’ minds: when will we be able to stop wearing masks in public?
Not so fast.
Natalie Sellers, senior vice president of communicationsfor Parrish Healthcare, said the question really needs to be framed a different way.
“The question isn’t, ‘When can people stop wearing masks?’” she said. “The question should be, ‘what things must occur to allow people not to have to wear masks?’”
What are those things?
For one, herd immunity.
“We anticipate the CDC and other public health experts will remove their recommendations for universal masking when there is no longer widespread transmission of the virus — basically, when we achieve herd immunity,” said Health First Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Jeffrey Stalnaker. “Once herd immunity is achieved, mandated mask-wearing could be lifted by the CDC.”
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community becomes immune to a disease, which makes the disease’s spread from person to person unlikely.
This can happen from a combination of community members being exposed and developing immunity, or by others developing immunity through vaccination.
But when might that be?
Again, not so fast.
According to mayoclinic.org, the percentage of a community that needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies from disease to disease. The more contagious a disease is, the greater the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to the disease to stop its spread.
For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission.
In Brevard, just under 8,000 people have tested positive for COVID-19. And with a population just under 600,000, the Space Coast hasn't nearly reached the level needed for herd immunity.
According to the New England Journal of Medicine, about 200 million Americans and 5.6 billion people worldwide would need to be immune in order to end the pandemic.
As for when a vaccine will be ready, some are hoping that could occur by November. The U.S. government has chosen three vaccine candidates to fund for Phase 3 trials: Moderna, AstraZeneca in partnership with Oxford University, and Pfizer in partnership with BioNTech.
One had a setback this week as AstraZeneca had to pause its trials because of a patient's side effects. The company said this is routine and expected.
In the meantime, MedFast’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. David Williams said masks are not only here for the foreseeable future, but they are needed to protect more than just people’s health.
“Yeah, it’s uncomfortable, but we’re still doing business. Masks protect the economy and masks help us protect each other,” Williams said. “The masks are going to be a part of the lifestyle for some time.”
Many businesses, including large companies like Walmart and Publix, did not start imposing mask mandates until July.
In the time since, positive cases have been on the decline.
At a Brevard County emergency operations update meeting on Aug. 27, Florida Department of Health-Brevard Administrator Maria Stahl said: "We've definitely flattened our curve, and actually a little bit on the downward trend. That does not mean we need to lower our vigilance."
Dr. Saima Abbas, the Infectious Disease Physician for Rockledge Regional Medical Center, agreed.
Numbers may be lower, but they are not near a point where people can start easing up on restrictions.
“Although the numbers are less as far as hospitalizations are concerned, it is wishful thinking to speculate prematurely about the end of this pandemic,” Abbas said. “We have lost too many lives to become complacent. Even one case can start the cycle again. Personally, I don’t see myself taking my mask off until there are zero cases for a month.”
For the seven-day period between Sept. 3-9, Florida as a whole averaged 2,672 cases and 87 deaths per day. In the same period, Brevard averaged 46 cases and just under three deaths per day.
Ultimately, directions on masks are likely to come from the CDC, which began recommending them in early April.
Given the safety masks provide, some have wondered if those practices of requiring masks in certain settings like doctor's offices might stay in place even after the CDC removes mask recommendations for the general public.
“No, I don’t see that,” Williams said. “It’s going to coincide with how affected individual people are with the coronavirus. The fewer people infected get sick, the less people are going to wear masks, like right now. People are starting to get mask fatigue. And when people start getting sick again, we’ll see the rise, we’ll raise the alarm bells, people will put their masks back on. Hopefully ... we’ll get a vaccine or we’ll get some medications that we find to be effective.”
Another sign to watch: what other countries are doing.
“It's interesting to take a look at practices in other parts of the world,” Stalnaker said. “For example, because of the public safety measures being observed — masking, social distancing and sanitation – during their respective flu seasons, there have been fewer infections, and their seasons have been milder.”
So, if a number — an educated guess — had to be put to how much longer the CDC might recommend wearing masks, Williams posited this: “It’s the new normal for right now. I don’t expect it to continue past the vaccination, or past decline in the COVID infections, but for right now it’s the smart thing to do. We’re going to wear it in Lowe’s, we’re going to wear it in Publix, we should wear it in those places and we just need to be careful for the next upcoming eight months to a year until we have a handle on this and then hoping the mask policy and those things will go away.”
If that all holds true, experts anticipate we could be wearing masks well into 2021.
Walters can be reached at twalters@gannett.com
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