The College Football Playoff selection committee and everybody else in college football will be watching Florida State extremely closely on Saturday night. What they’re going to see is a Seminoles defense that just keeps getting better and has climbed to No. 6 nationally in stop rate.
What is stop rate? It’s a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo college football than yards per game or points per game. We’re now in Year 7 of tracking this statistic (here are the final standings for 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 and 2017), along with every defense’s points per drive average.
The stellar performance of offensive playmakers Jordan Travis, Trey Benson, Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson has commanded most of the attention during Florida State’s run to a perfect 12-0 regular season. Travis’ season-ending leg injury against North Alabama has made his team’s Playoff case more complicated in a year with eight legitimately great teams vying for four spots.
If the No. 4 Seminoles slip up in the ACC championship game against No. 14 Louisville, they’re likely out. Some will want to leave them out even if they win, arguing they’re not a top-four team without their QB1. CFP executive director Bill Hancock’s line on Tuesday night that the committee picks the four “best” teams, not the four most deserving, raised some eyebrows.
While most will understandably fixate on the play of backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker, don’t underestimate the impact that Florida State’s defense has had on this run. In defensive coordinator Adam Fuller’s first season in charge, this unit finished No. 106 nationally with a stop rate of 55 percent in 2020. Three years later, he has raised that rate to 75 percent.
They’re winning with one of the best pass defenses in the country. Florida State has held four of its last six opponents under 100 passing yards, has more interceptions (nine) than passing touchdowns allowed (eight) and is No. 1 in the FBS in completion percentage defense, allowing catches on only 47.6 percent of attempts. When you’re a top-10 defense at rushing the passer, that makes the job a bit easier. Only Iowa and Clemson have forced more punts this season than the Seminoles.
Fuller has built up a crew with impressive experience and depth. They have 20 different players who have played at least 200 snaps on the season, and 14 of those 20 are juniors or seniors. Successful transfer portal additions — including defensive end Jared Verse, linebacker Tatum Bethune, cornerback Fentrell Cypress II and defensive tackle Braden Fiske — helped expedite this rebuild, but most of those top contributors came in as high school signees and put in the hard work to develop and raise this program up.
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If the Seminoles want to keep contending for a national title, they’re going to have to bring their best against Jeff Brohm’s Louisville offense in Charlotte. The Cardinals know how to get stops, too, currently sitting at No. 18 in stop rate. They’re going to have a bunch of fan bases pulling for them and praying for chaos on Saturday night. In the tightest CFP race we’ve ever seen, the Seminoles will get the last word. And their defense looks prepared to make a serious statement.
How are the rest of the defenses across the country performing in stop rate? Here are the full FBS-only stop rate standings for the 2023 regular season.
Note: All data is courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus.
(Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
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College football stop rate rankings: Florida State leaning on surging defense for CFP push - The Athletic
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