Good Saturday morning, everyone. The spring season comes to a close today as summer officially kicks off this weekend with Father’s Day right on its heels. You’re all probably wondering if we have any heat trying to sneak back in to muck things up for the weekend. Let’s break down our setup for today, Sunday and the week ahead of us. First, the front that has been waiting to our west for the past few days has finally worked in on Friday. That gave a good number of you accumulating rainfall during the day and scattered t-storms for the afternoon. That stationary front will stick around the area as we work through the rest of the weekend.
Upstairs at the jet stream level, we finally have the core of the jet just to our south. That has thankfully sent the early summer heat back to our south. However, we had one quick shortwave ride in along the jet to help fuel our rain and t-storm chances back on Friday. Right on its heels, we have another shortwave developing across northern Colorado that will keep t-storm chances around.
With some additional moisture trying to sneak in this morning, a few of you could have a few showers or quick t-storms to start the morning out. Everyone, though, is starting mild this morning with lows in the upper 60s to near 70°.
We’ll finally have some sunshine return to help warm us up through the day. By noon, we’ll also have our light south breeze turn out of the southwest and pick up at 10-2o mph. With some gusts possibly near 25 to start the afternoon out, we should be in the upper 70s by lunch time.
The southwest wind and partly sunny skies will send us into the middle 80s for the afternoon ahead of us. While the start of the afternoon looks quiet, we have the chance for scattered t-storms to appear for the afternoon.
Fortunately, we won’t be expecting any of our t-storms for today to turn severe. They could still be capable of lightning and heavy downpours at their strongest. Some of these t-storms could linger as we start the evening out, but we should trend toward a quiet start for Sunday morning. Father’s Day will start mild and partly cloudy with lows dropping back into the upper 60s. Some scattered t-storms can’t be ruled out by the afternoon, but we’ll enjoy a warm Sunday with highs back in the middle 80s once again.
Even though we have some t-storms possible for Sunday afternoon, there’s another time period on Sunday I’m watching closely. If you see up above, the upper levels and the stalled out front will want to fire up a complex of t-storms in northwestern Kansas. That eventual complex wants to try and head our way by late Sunday night. The Future Track below wants that complex of t-storms to start working into our northwestern counties by 9 PM.
As we work toward the midnight hour to start Monday morning, this t-storm complex wants to work through the heart of the area.
As we work closer to 4 AM Monday morning, the complex of t-storms will want to move on to the southeast of the area giving us a calmer start to the work day by sunrise.
With this setup looking very probable, these t-storms want to bring a low severe threat to the area as the weekend wraps up. We’ll focus on those t-storms working in by 9 PM Sunday and leaving by 4 AM Monday. Typically, t-storms that develop and unfold like this don’t traditionally produce much in the way of large hail and present a minimal tornado risk. While we’ll put these threats relatively low, we’ll definitely be on the lookout for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall as those t-storms roll in.
Even though early Monday morning may be loud to start, we’ll have a little break in the t-storm chances for the rest of the morning and into early Monday afternoon. With highs back in the middle 80s, the upper levels still active and another front wanting to push in from the north, we’ll have additional t-storms fire up Monday afternoon and lasting into Monday evening. Some t-storms will try to linger on Tuesday, but we’ll be behind a cold front for the day. That could actually drop highs into the upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies. We’ll get a little break in the action by next Wednesday with partly sunny skies and highs looking quite nice in the lower 80s.
By the end of next week, we’ll see temperatures try to push back into the middle to upper 80s with a few random t-storms for Thursday morning and scattered t-storms on Friday. If you’re curious as to how we look for the rest of June and the month of July, Doug has you covered with his long range forecast down below.
Have a great Saturday!
Nick
Long range forecast through July:
Next Saturday: Staying quite warm for Saturday with isolated to scattered t-storms possible.
June 28th-July 4th: Warm through the first half of the week with hotter temperatures the second half of the week. I don’t see extreme heat working in. We’re expecting the typical late June/early July heat to return. Thunderstorms chances Monday through Wednesday, then again by the weekend which is the 4th. Side note, watching the tropics this week in the gulf.
July 5th-11th: A warm start to the week with a hot finish. Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, then again Wednesday through Saturday. Just afternoon pop up storms.
July 12th-18th: Warm the first half of the week with hot temps settling in the second half of the week. Pop up storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances again by the weekend. Tropics we need to watch possible development near Florida.
July 19th-25th: Mainly a hot week with pop up isolated storms each and every day. We will watch the tropics near Cuba.
July 26th- August 1st: Again mainly a hot week with highs well into the 90s. Mainly a dry week as well with thunderstorm chances by the weekend. Tropics need to be watch this week in the Gulf.
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June 20, 2020 at 06:09PM
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